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SAM Magazine-Lakewood, Colo., Oct. 9, 2008-A special NSAA report prepared by RRC Associates concludes that snowfall will be a greater indicator of visits this coming season than the economy. The report is based on an analysis of visits, snowfall, economic conditions, and consumer confidence over the past 30 years.

RRC outlines two different scenarios for the coming season. In the first, the economy and consumer confidence are weak, but snow is plentiful and consistent throughout the season. In this case, snow quality, temperatures, and timing of snowfall will determine area visits. The clearest example of this is from 1981-82, when the economy was in recession but good snowfall led to a rebound in visits from the previous poor season-from 39.7 to 50.7 million visits.

If the economy and consumer confidence are weak and snowfall is erratic, however (the second scenario), poor snow and a weak economy can combine to reduce visits dramatically. Such was the case in both 1980-81 and 1990-91, the two years with the lowest visitation over the study period (39.7 and 46.7 million visits respectively).

The report concludes that if snow is good, even a significant economic downturn will likely have only a "moderate" impact on visits. However, it notes, "the macroeconomic conditions that will set the tone for this season are already in place. At the very least we anticipate seeing skiers and snowboarders staying closer to home, utilizing less expensive, drive oriented, regional resorts, and taking more day trips."

"When the snow comes, it has never been more vital for smart resort operators to already have in place the right products and packages to stimulate demand," the report continues. "This means creating the right products for each of your key market segments." The report concludes, "This season will represent a unique test of how effectively we meet our growth goals in the face of significant challenges."

The full report is available at www.nsaa.org/nsaa/members/NSAA_Econ_special_report.pdf. \