Strong Summer Travel Is No Guarantee for Winter

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16 September 2010

Push to The Latest: No

SAM Magazine-Denver, Sept. 16, 2010-The positive occupancy trend in mountain destinations continued during the month of August, according to the most recent data released by the Mountain Travel Research Program (MTRiP). The data reflect activity at 265 lodging properties in 15 destination resorts in Colorado, Utah, California, and Oregon.

August occupancies were up 9.6 percent compared to August 2009 among the participating properties, and the average daily rate (ADR) was up 1.8 percent. It was the second consecutive month for increases in both occupancy and rate.

The outlook for September is currently optimistic, with on-the-books occupancy as of Aug. 31 up 12.8 percent compared to the same period in 2009. However, the ADR is down 1.8 percent compared to last year.

"Business in August continued with nearly the same robust results we saw in July, and the September outlook is even better," reported Ralf Garrison, MTRiP's founder and director.

However, rollercoaster economic news continues to confound upcoming projections. The Travel Price Index (TPI) in August moved up 0.6 percent, the seventh consecutive month of increases-primarily due to price hikes at the gas pump, airline and rail tickets, and lodging rates.

"This is the highest close of the TPI since pre-recession September 2008, and the momentum seems sustained," observed Tom Foley, MTRiP research analyst. "It indicates the cost of recreation is recovering faster than the cost of living, and that consumers are prioritizing or willing to accept some price increases to accommodate their travel and leisure plans."

Or maybe not. MTRiP also tracks advance reservations for the coming six months, and the early preview for September through February 2011 shows year-over-year advance reservations up 3.8 percent compared to the same period last year, while the ADR is down 1.7 percent.

"The factors driving the positive summer trend don't necessarily translate into winter reservations," said Garrison. "It's still too early for the data to provide definitive direction, and at this point, neither the economic outlook nor advance reservation data is showing any significant change over last year," he concluded.