SAM Magazine—Broomfield, Colo., Jan. 14, 2019‚—Vail Resorts, Inc. (VR), said visits through the holiday period, Jan. 6, were up nearly 17 percent compared to a year ago, and major revenue departments also showed gains. But VR had expected even better results, compared to a relatively poor early season a year ago, and said it now expects resort reported EBITDA to be below the range of $718 million to $750 million the company forecast in late September. VR blamed "much lower than anticipated" destination visitation Dec. 1-21 for the shortfall.

The metrics are for North American mountain resorts, and exclude Perisher in Australia and VR's urban resorts. They are adjusted to include results from Stevens Pass and Triple Peaks, LLC, as if both were owned by VR in both years, and adjusted to eliminate the impact of foreign currency for Whistler Blackcomb's results.

VR noted that revenues were up in several profit centers, from ski school (up 9.5 percent) to dining (up 14.8 percent). Total lift ticket revenue, including an allocation of season pass revenue, was up 12.2 percent.

Commenting on the ski season to date, VR CEO Rob Katz said, "It is great to see the growth across our business this season ... Improved conditions across our western U.S. resorts helped drive a strong rebound in visitation and spending, particularly during the key holiday weeks.

"However, despite the good conditions, our destination guest visitation was much lower than anticipated in the pre-holiday period, particularly Dec. 1 through Dec. 21. We believe this was driven by destination guests' concerns from two prior years of poor pre-holiday conditions at our U.S. resorts, and we did not see the pickup in short-term bookings we had expected.

"Results over the holidays were in line with our expectations across our resorts, except at Whistler Blackcomb and our Tahoe resorts, which had results below our expectations primarily driven by increased weather variability ... and lower than expected destination and international visitation."

Katz said the forecast cut for the full-year profit comes "primarily as a result of missing our expectations in the pre-holiday period."

VR's report raises several questions about the company and the industry as a whole. Why didn't destination visitors show up in expected numbers during the Dec. 1-21 period? Has Alterra and its Ikon Pass peeled off some of VR's former destination guests? Did the stock market’s recent correction spook destination visitors/investors and keep them at home? Is the missed forecast a symptom of a broader nationwide slowdown in destination visits?

The uncertainty about the report dinged VR's stock price, which had already declined significantly after its first quarter 2019 results, released Dec. 7, came in below analysts' expectations. After briefly topping $300 a share in September and sitting above $280 a share in late November, the share price today sits around $190.

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