In the early 1970s, a computer programmer finished working on a program and added a final comment into the code. He wrote: “These date calculations will not work in 2000. I hope that’s not a problem.” He, like thousands of other computer programmers, did not really believe their programs would be in use 30 years later. Unfortunately, many programmers were wrong and there is a problem. Millions of computers, and the systems they support, are teetering on the brink of failure in less than a year. The ski industry will not be exempt.
The problem is simple enough and, at one time, it was a “feature.” Saving space and expense, early programmers coded dates using two digits for the year, not four. Essentially “68” represented “1968.” Over the next 30 years, this method of handling dates became ubiquitous in the computer industry. Over the same 30 years, technology permeated our society, offering tremendous efficiencies, economies and speeds. Using two digit years has, however, spread a serious bug into computer systems around the world.
In the year 2000, the two-digit year becomes “00” and math truly becomes the New math! This kind of logical error can cause computer systems to do anything from crash to permeate our bank accounts with undetected withdrawals. We have grown dependent upon computer systems that have a serious problem—the Millennium Bug!
Where Lie the Snow Snakes?
The most recognized problem is with computer software written with the century not represented in the data. When one year is subtracted from another year, the software produces a predictable result, e.g., “1995 – 1994 = 1” works just like “95 – 94 = 1”. However, when we move into the 21st century the math looks a little different. Now it’s “2000 – 1999 = 1,” which is not like the counterpart “00 – 99 = -99.” Suddenly, the lease on that condominium is very old.
Computer chips, the main components of computers, potentially have the same problem. Again, programmers, saving valuable memory space, used two-digit years. In the case of some chips, you cannot replace or reprogram them and large pieces of the computer must be discarded. This is easy, but expensive. Remember, however, that this is like a tower foundation on a ski lift. If it crumbles, the lift also goes. If the chip puts out bad information, the software will pick it up and propagate it throughout your financials, your mortgage payments, your five-year plans and on and on.
Probably the most common, but least understood, problems are with embedded chips. These chips are in electronic equipment of all kinds and control everything from our microwave, to our cars, to our elevators…and yes, our ski lifts. Only 10 percent of the 40 billion chips in the world are in PCs, leaving 36 billion in other electronic instruments and devices. It is estimated that two billion of these chips have date problems. Two hundred million of these problem chips are being used in applications where the date problem will cause trouble. If your toaster or coffee maker has an embedded chip with a date problem, it probably is not significant. If your alarm systems fail or your time clocks fail, that probably is only inconvenient. However, what about your ski boot dryers? Or, more seriously, the electric meter to your ski lift, snowmaking equipment, or condominium complex? Or the electronic lift-ticketing? Or your reservations computer? Or your automated scheduling for lift maintenance? Two hundred million chips will cause significant problems in less than one year. Where are they and are they in your resort?
The supply chain is the most abstract and serious problem from the Millennium Bug. Even if you have all the bad chips purged from your operation, and even if you have all the software checked and compliant—is your electric company ready? The ski industry depends upon trucking, banking, power companies, accounting, telephones, snowmaking controls and pipe, just-intime food services, fuel, sewer systems, airlines and other transportation, advertising and promotions, and on and on. Our businesses are inextricably linked and up to 50 percent of business transactions are electronic, especially with banking, financials, just-in-time inventory supply, transportation, utilities, etc. Some experts predict that 50 percent of companies will not make the Year 2000 deadline and you rely upon these same companies to support your ski area.
Computer systems will fail three ways due to the Millennium Bug:
- **The computer will shut down**—This is an obvious problem that will be discovered immediately and, with a reasonable contingency plan, will be fixed in short order. The result will not be devastating in most cases.
- **Large observable errors**—Here the computers will not actually shut down, but the results will be so extraordinary that businesses will note them and fix them immediately. The example in this article, using “00 – 99 = -99,” instead of “2000 – 1999 = 1” is a large error. If the maintenance schedule on your lift shows you have not serviced it in 99 years, you will hopefully guess that this is the Millennium Bug before you replace it.
- **Small accumulating errors**—This is the most treacherous problem. You will not see it for weeks or years and extensive damage can happen, including infecting other machines with bad data before the problem is discovered. For example, if you calculate “1999 – 1950” you get “49” years, and the same with “99 – 50” = “49.” However, when you take “2000 – 1951” you get “49” years, while with “00 – 51” it equals “-51.” If this difference is stored in a field with room for only two digits, you can be looking at “49” and “51”, both very reasonable results. The mistake is very hard to detect, but how much would two years extra time on your land lease cost you? What about letting your employees retire two years early with full benefits?
The lawyers are out there and waiting. Many businesses are linked in the supply chain and some will fail. Those least prepared, even those in small companies, are likely to become scapegoats. If you are responsible for a publicly-held company, you should take the Millennium Bug very seriously. Remember, this is not an information-technology problem. This is an organizational issue and the board and officers are responsible for the well-being and direction of the company.
It is estimated that the Millennium Bug will cost the world $6 billion to prepare and repair. It is also estimated that the post-millennium litigation cost will be $1.6 trillion. There have already been Year 2000 related lawsuits for breach of warranty, breach of contract, misrepresentation, negligent repair and violations of warranty and consumer protection statutes.
Bug-free America:
There are four standards important (from the British Standards Institute) in assessing Year 2000 compliance:
- No value for current date will cause any interruption in operation. This means that dates will rollover correctly across the year 2000 change.
- Date-based functionality must behave consistently for dates prior to, during and after year 2000. This means that dates function as they are intended to function and no surprises like 9/9/99 meaning “end of file.”
- In all interfaces and data storage, the century in any date must be specified either explicitly or by unambiguous algorithms or inference rules. This means that centuries are stored explicitly (such as CCYY) or implicitly (such as the windowing technique, e.g., “00 to 50” is used as the 21st century, while “51 to 99” remains in the 20th century).
- Year 2000 must be recognized as a leap year.
RAID for Millennium Bugs (How to prepare and repair):
- Create awareness of issues and their importance.
- Educate yourself.
- Communicate within and outside your organizations.
- Take stock, because this is real and will not go away.
- Get organizational commitment from the top. Develop an action team with assigned responsibilities.
- Survey the organization and create a plan.
- Inventory computers for hardware compliance. If it’s old, it’s likely to be a problem.
- Inventory software and determine which applications are critical.
- Inventory infrastructure, such as telephones, voice mail, lift/snowmaking controls and credit card machines.
- Evaluate items that may be on scheduled maintenance.
- Evaluate any manufactured or resold goods for compliance.
- Evaluate the status of your vendors and customers and associates.
- Are they compliant and will they be in business and able to deliver to or receive from you?
- Evaluate your electronic interfaces with vendors and customers, e.g., EDI or funds or bank transfers.
- Will data from other machines pollute your data?
- Assess the severity of problems, prioritize them.
- Make corrections to your systems.
- Rewrite existing code, or
- Replace existing code and systems, or
- Retire existing code and systems.
- Act now—programmers are becoming a premium.
- Contact your software vendors early, they will be very busy this year.
- Review your contracts and agreements.
- Test corrections to systems.
- Prepare backup tapes.
- Run with clocks set ahead.
- Contact your vendors and customers.
- Review your insurance. Beware, many will not cover Year 2000 issues.
- Develop a contingency plan.
This could be part of the reasonable steps a business should take, but consider alternate sources for products and services, such as paper documentation which may be the best type of contingency plan because it eliminates working with corrupt software or data.
The Year 2000 is less than 365 days! There are no extensions to this deadline. All businesses will be affected, including your suppliers and customers. A significant, up-front effort, as outlined above, should be taken to ensure the security of your business.
Year 2000 Websites
- www.year2000.com
- www.y2k.azstarnet.com
- www.sentrytech.com/Y2K
- www.sba.gov/y2k
- www.softwaremag.com
- www.mpmlaw.com/year2000.html
- www.cio.com/forums/y2k/index.html
- www.gatech.edu/year2000
- www.millennium.greenwich2000.com/year2000
- www.gte.com/Evolutions/Current/overview.html
- www.netscapeworld.com/netscapeworld/nw-12-1996/nw-12-year2000.html
- www.microsoft.com/year2000
- www.sun.com/y2000
- www.ttuhsc.edu/pages/year2000/ttuy2k.htm
- www.iee.org.uk/2000risk
- csn.uneb.edu/year2000
- www.y2k.com
- www.RighTime.com
- www.dci.com/brochure/y2kbosorl
- www.mitr.org/technology/cots/COMPLIANCE_CAT.html
- www.wa.gov/dis/2000/6_survey.html
