What Happens from Here?
September 15, 2001—It’s Friday night and a crazy week is finally about behind us. A series of devastating plane hijackings and subsequent suicide crashes has left the country reeling. Over 5,000 people missing in New York City—after a week, most of them presumed dead. Another 200 people dead as a result of a terrorist attack at the Pentagon and 44 more in Pennsylvania.
Apparently it’s the work of Muslim radicals; folks so completely wrapped in hatred for the United States and U.S. foreign policy that they’ve dedicated the whole of their lives to administering this unapproachable pain. They claim that the pain is part of a necessary course; choosing to die in the name of Allah, rather than live in it.
Here in Vermont, away from the heat and bustle of the city, it’s easy to feel isolated—even insulated. Surrounded by the first flecks of foliage season and September-blue skies, it would have been the perfect week to begin saying goodbye to summer. The mountain slows this time of year, waiting for a pick-up in fall traffic; precursor to the great winter rush. The warmth of an afternoon sun fools you into thinking that you’ve still got plenty of time. Time to get snowmaking equipment ready, marketing materials together, and staff on board. Plenty of time before winter.
Mark Twain said, “Sentiment runs alongside strife.” Sentiments have been evenly divided between the knee-jerking, “Let’s sauté the entire Middle East” tribe and the “Can’t we all just get along?” folks hanging out, way out, in left field. I’ve drifted in and out of both camps—unsure of my footing in either.
My brother is in the military. He wants blood. My parents, too long set adrift from the idealistic shore of the 1960’s, seek blood as well. My wife cries for all the children. Friends talk about endgames and net results. Peter Jennings quips, “It’s normal to feel confused.” I don’t get the sense that he speaks from this sort of experience.
Me? I mostly feel a little sick. I wonder what the next move will be—then the one after that. I worry about empty spaces at dinner tables. I think about couples who argued as they walked out of the house in the morning and the apologies they’d never get to deliver. I imagine trying to condense the love for my wife into a 30-second spoonful poured through a creaky cell phone.
What happens next week? President Bush has added a noticeable click to his step. Buoyed by an overwhelming climate of initial support, Dubya appears as pissed as he does pained. He was in New York City today lifting the spirits of a tireless volunteer crew, which continues to search for the buried sons and daughters of Gotham. He appears to be catching stride, but I suspect time will tell.
It’s supposed to drop into the 30’s this weekend with a chance of the season’s first frost. We got wood delivered this week and my wife wrapped her American Beauties in burlap. Maybe winter is closer than we think. Maybe it’s much closer.
It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again
by Jeff Harbaugh, J.A. Harbaugh & Co.
Well, here we are looking at a war, a recession and President Bush in the White House. The last time that happened was during the 1990-91 season. Visits to resorts fell to 46.7 million, the second lowest of any season since 1978-79. Airline revenue based on kilometers flown fell 25 percent during the first month of the Gulf War. They were below 1990 levels from January through September of 1991. It took a year for air traffic to recover to prewar levels.
In 1990, the economy started off pretty well. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a 5.1 percent rate during the first quarter. That declined to 0.9 percent in the second quarter and fell further to a negative 0.7 percent in the third. Fourth quarter GDP fell at a 3.2 percent rate. For the year, we ended up with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2 percent. In 1991, it was negative 0.6 percent.
From a healthy 5.6 percent rate of growth in 2000’s second quarter, GDP has fallen each quarter. It ended the second quarter of this year with 0.2 percent growth. My guess is that the number we get at the end of October for the third quarter will be negative.
According to the International Air Transport Association, airline traffic has fallen each month this year since February compared to the same month in the previous year. When was the last time airline traffic declined? Again, it was during the 1990-91 recession. Air passenger volume was down 50 percent for a couple of days after flying resumed following September 11. As of October 4, it was still down 29 percent.
It’s been a long time since a recession. The last time we had one where Europe, Japan and the U.S. were all in recession at the time was in 1973 to 1975. It lasted 16 months. The 1990-1991 recession lasted eight months.
The good news? The USIA End of Season National Business Survey for 1990-1991 reported that the average inches of snowfall per area, based on 173 reporting resorts, was 130 inches. Over the last eight seasons, according to RRC Associates, the average number of inches per resort was 177.6. 1990-91 was by far the worst snow year for which I have data. Which is good news, because if the snow had been great in a year when visits were 46.7 million, we would have had to lay the bad year completely at the door of war and recession.
As usual, we’re left praying for snow. But aside from praying, I’m sure most resorts have already reviewed their business plans to determine what the impact of a significant decline in visitors would be and how they would react.
This is an extract from a white paper that Jeff Harbaugh has written for Snowsports Industries America (SIA). For more information, contact SIA at (703) 556-9020.
Sport—What Is it Good for?
by Roger Lohr, Lohr Associates
The shock and sadness of the attacks at the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and on a field outside of Pittsburgh affected all Americans on an unprecedented scale. We will all now experience getting on with our lives and turning the “where-were-you” memories into just that—memories. Snow sports can play a role in helping us to move on.
Among those of us who are regularly accused of dedicating too much time to sports, there’s been much talk about the value of sports in times like these. Some came to realize that in view of the tragedies and the heroism, sports don’t really matter in the big picture. But we should appreciate that recreation serves as a distraction. Sports can’t be compared to war or death, but it’s a healthy distraction, and it has an important role in American culture. It proves that life goes on.
What about snow sports in the face of September 11?
At a meeting of eastern ski writers this past September, everyone had the same question on their minds. How will the events of September 11 affect the snow sports world? Thinking about this question shouldn’t cause us to feel guilty or greedy. Even though we feel sad and shocked we shouldn’t subjugate the fact that skiing and snowboarding is what we in the industry know and it is at the core of our lives.
Without a crystal ball, we’re unarmed to provide answers to that question, which specifically implies some of the following:
1) If air travel and tourism continues its precipitous drop, how much of a decline should destination resorts and the related snow sports world expect?
2) Will snow sports enthusiasts turn to local areas within driving distance in large numbers?
3) How much of the increase in local activity will replace lost destination business?
4) Regarding the product business, can we expect the prescribed “acquisition therapy” to take hold this winter (will people go out and spend to feel better)?
At the ski writer’s meeting, some resort public relations people voiced their sensitivity to the situation, asking if they should delay their marketing campaigns and mailings to the media. In a different discussion, one industry veteran worried that historically we’ve never been able to increase total skier visitation and sales by marketing. But he better be wrong about our ability to market skiing. We are going to need it!
There should be an industry consensus that (similar to the distraction provided by popular sports) snow sports can be a great panacea. Think about the feelings associated with alpine and nordic skiing, snowboarding, snowshoeing, tubing and so on. The industry should stand proud, snow sports is indeed an excellent remedy that can help transform the pain of September 11 into memories. And snow sports can create new memories of new experiences that we can enjoy this coming winter. To help people and for our livelihood—encourage people, invite people, cajole people to get on the snow and take up snow sports this winter.
We Know It’s About the Kids
by Carla Marcus, WinterKids
In its September issue, SAM raises an important point and calls us to action. “It’s time to refocus…to commit to an industry culture that believes kids are our future.” SAM states that “the future of the sport is with the kids” while, unfortunately, the industry trend is to woo aging baby boomers with discount wars and real estate sales.
Well, guess what—there is good news. In Maine, as well as in many other states, we are actively and successfully turning kids into future core skiers, with the statistics to prove it. WinterKids, a charitable 501c3 organization that evolved from Ski Maine Association, offers several effective programs targeting children.
The 5th Grade Passport, currently strong in several states plus Canada, is in its fifth year of building skiers and riders in Maine. Fifth graders are given a full season (no blackout dates) of free skiing, plus free or discounted lessons and rentals—and so are their parents, sisters and brothers. Kids don’t become core skiers without the involvement of the whole family, so we make sure that happens.
Applications for the free Passport are distributed through the schools to every 5th grader in the state, and more than one in every five kids statewide participate in the program. As a follow-up, the next year those 5th (now 6th) graders and their parents are re-invited with the 6th Grade SnowPass, a lift ticket discount at every Maine ski area.
The programs are strengthened by the endorsements of Maine’s governor and the Maine Principals’ and Superintendents’ Associations, and supported by most schools in the state.
WinterKids’ second thrust is its 120-page “Winter Sport Fitness Curriculum Guide,” geared to grades K-12 and available free to any teacher in Maine. While the focus is on getting kids outside in the winter through physical education and health classes, the guide includes components for math, science and English and also features adapted sections for disabled students.
The third cornerstone of WinterKids commitment to kids is the Julie Parisien School Tour. As WinterKids’ spokesperson, this three-time Olympian and Maine hero, travels to schools throughout the state promoting the compelling message of skiing, health and winter outdoor fun.
These programs have been implemented for several years now, and both anecdotal and statistical evidence point to the same thing. It’s working. Last year we determined that kids were skiing more than twice as much as they would have without the programs (3.87 additional days), and that continued through the 7th grade (last grade surveyed). In addition, over 30 percent of accompanying parents were either new or lapsed skiers, meeting another industry goal.
Maine is only one state focusing on kids and we are all committed, enjoying the short-term rewards and looking forward to the future. We know that kids are the future of our industry and we’re meeting the challenge.
