SAM Magazine-Denver, Oct. 20, 2009-Market indicators in most sectors of the economy remained mixed through Sept. 30, and continued to depress lodging reservations for the next six months at mountain travel destinations in the West, according to the most recent data from the Mountain Travel Research Program (MTRiP). But early bookings for January and February 2010 are running ahead of last year, fueled by big discounts.

"Although consumers continue to show price sensitivity, several indicators are more favorable this year, including stable travel costs and a more favorable U.S. exchange rate, where the lower dollar favors inbound international travel," said Ralf Garrison, author of the monthly report.

September business in mountain destinations continued the recent pattern of lower volume and less strength compared to last year, with September 2009 occupancy down 14.2 percent from the prior September. Still, that was a slight improvement from August, which was down 20.4 percent from the previous year. September lodging rates were down 5.7 percent from September 2008.

Looking forward, reservations taken in September for arrivals in September-February were down 11.9 percent compared to the previous year at this time-a reversal of the positive August pacing, which showed 2.1 percent growth. The most heartening data was an increase in reservations taken in September for arrival in January and February: up 16.9 percent for January and 6.9 percent for February over last year. The increases are due, in part, to lower lodging prices for the first two months of 2010-down 15 percent and 18.4 percent, respectively. Overall, lodging rates for the next six months are down 14.2 percent from 2008-09.

"This pattern of increased reservations and decreased rates is consistent across a majority of destinations, but the data is preliminary and volume is low so it is premature to read too much into these results," cautioned Garrison. "While the true trends for the upcoming season are not yet apparent, market demand can't be taken for granted." Mountain destinations will have to either deliver more value or less cost, he declared. It wouldn't hurt to pray for early snowfall, either.

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