For the past several winters the weather has refused to cooperate either with the calendar or with the ski business. In the northeast, the snowfall has been very erratic, with snow usually falling at the wrong time of the season, or the wrong time of the week. This past season often saw some snow falling on a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, which would melt by the weekend. This, of course, results in poor business for the ski industry, to say nothing of frustrations for skiers.
In the west, the total snowfall for many sections of California, Utah, Nevada and Colorado was well below normal, although some will argue that point, and I cannot completely disagree with them. For example, in Colorado, the popular resorts of Aspen and Vail had problems in receiving snow, but in the southwestern sections of the state, snowfall was quite plentiful. It was just another case of being in the right place at the right time.
In parts of California, Nevada and Colorado there were a couple of late winter snow storms in March and April which provided some of the best skiing of the season. In fact, some areas were skiing as late as Mother’s Day.
Is the unusual weather here to stay, or is it just some sort of pattern? I firmly believe that it is a cyclical pattern and that things will change for the better in the not-too-distant future. Let me back up that statement with a few facts.
Ever heard of the 11-year sun spot cycle? If you haven’t, I suggest you try to find someone who is an amateur radio operator — better known as a radio ham — and ask him to verify the theory. Every 11 years there is a complete sun spot cycle in which the explosions from the sun range from very active to very inactive. A radio ham will tell you that for about a two or three-year period within the 11 years he can talk to someone in a far-off place like Australia, and the reception will be excellent. It will be the same as talking to his next door neighbor. At the other end of the spectrum it can be impossible to hear another ham a couple of blocks away.
Why? Sun spots enter the earth’s atmosphere causing atmospheric propagation of electricity, which upsets the radio reception patterns. But one must also remember that if you are causing an interference to the heat machine at high altitudes then you must be changing weather patterns as well.
That statement will cause a good fireside argument among meteorologists, but it is a theory in which I firmly believe, and one which I use in preparing my long-range weather forecasts.
How do sun spots change weather patterns? First of all, the jet stream controls the speed and direction of storm systems on the earth’s surface, and when the intensity of the jet stream changes, so do the surface systems
The jet stream is a kind of gulf stream in the upper atmosphere, twisting and turning its way around the world. On one side of the jet stream the air is very cold, and wind velocities are usually less than 50 knots; while the opposite side has warm temperatures, and winds of up to 250 knots. The bigger the difference in the temperature, the further south the jet stream will move and the more intense will become the surface systems
The jet stream in the winter months usually runs across the United States from around Oakland, Calif., to Cape Hatteras, N.C.; but when the air aloft is very cold it can dip as far south as the Gulf of Mexico, so it has a wide range. The jet stream the past few years has been behaving very erratically, and that, combined with the sun spot activity, is responsible for the “bad” winters.
Now that the reader has mastered the 11-year sun spot cycle, as well as its effect on the jet stream, let me pose another few thoughts. Every double sun spot cycle (about 20 to 24 years), droughts occur in the agricultural plains states of the U.S., hurricane paths shift from the Gulf of Mexico to the eastern seaboard and winters become quite severe in the United Kingdom, northern France, The Netherlands, Belgium and West Germany.
Furthermore, every triple sun spot cycle (about every 30 to 35 years), winters become quite mild in the northeastern part of the U.S., while the Pacific states plus the Rockies are hit with cold and dry winters, with late winter snow storms in the early spring.
You do not have to be a mathematical genius to figure out that sooner or later the 22 and 33-year cycles will come at the same time. And, if you agree with my theories, then welcome to the mid-1970’s.
We have had mild winters in New England . . . cold and dry winters in the Sierra and Rockies . . . hurricanes are now moving up the eastern seaboard (Hurricane Belle went over Long Island on August 9 this year) . . . droughts have been occurring in the plains states, reducing grain yields . . . and on and on, in a way that may persuade the reader that the theory does have valididty.
When is it all going to end? This looks like the last winter of unusual weather, especially for the northeast, and I feel there will be much better skiing conditions than last season.
New England, New York and Pennsylvania can expect some snowfall for skiing shortly after Thanksgiving, and again between Christmas and New Year’s. But then it will be quite mild again. Snow should return during the latter part of February, making for some good skiing in March.
Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota will have great skiing weather from around the first of December right through March, so get the skis ready.
The west is, as usual, presenting a more difficult forecast problem. There are very strong indications that this season will be about the same as last season: very erratic snowfall, but temperatures will not be cold enough to keep it on the ground for any length of time. And then when it does turn cold, most of the snow will be gone.
And finally a word of hope: if it will make the reader feel any better, normal winters should return to most of the ski areas during the winter of 1978-79.
So be patient!
