While the lack of beginners and the quality of the first-time experience are certainly two holes in our bucket, they are not the only ones, and may not be the biggest. Ten years worth of data from the National Skier/Boarder Opinion Survey (NSOS) indicate a number of leaks that exist along the lifespan of snowsport participants. Finding and plugging these holes is important, too, if we are to increase our skier/snowboarder base.
A Decline in First-timers
Let’s first take a look at the hole in the bucket that the industry is focusing on: the decline in first-time snowsport participants. Over the last 10 years, the percentage of first-time skiers on the slopes has declined from 9 percent to 3 percent. Similarly, since 1996, the percentage of first-time snowboarders has declined from 39 percent to 11 percent. If we are not able to stimulate interest in trying the sport, improving the first-time experience will have limited impact. The National Ski Areas Association’s (NSAA) focus in the Growth Initiative on increasing trial is on the mark.
| Group | 1993 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|
| Skiers | 9% | 3% |
| Snowboarders | 39% | 10% |
Converting Newcomers to the Core
The second hole that the industry is focusing on is converting newcomers to the core, which is perhaps the bigger challenge. A core participant is someone who skis or rides five or more times a season. In our off-mountain studies, where we are more likely to find the occasional skier/rider, we find that 77 percent of the respondents who say they skied/rode in a given year skied five days or less—leaving only 23 percent who skied more than five days.
The more immediate challenge may be to get beginners to return every year. Of the skiers and riders we found on the slopes last season, only 31 percent had participated in snowsports in each of the last 5 years. On average, skiers and riders participated in 2.5 of the last 5 years.
The good news is that our conversion numbers may not be that bad. While there is always room for improvement, the beginner lesson experience is already more positive for many first-timers than most industry experts believe. Leisure Trends has conducted five beginner skier/rider studies through various methods—phone, mail and email—over the last six years, with similar results:
- Forty-four percent of those who take a first-time lesson feel a strong commitment to continuing with the sport (8 or better on a 1 to 10 scale). And beginners translate this commitment into action: we found that 60 to 70 percent of those of those who had taken a lesson had returned to the slopes between the time of their lesson and when they were interviewed. And of this group, 87 percent said they would go again. The intent and enthusiasm to commit to the sport is there for 60 percent of beginners.
- Forty percent of those taking a first-time lesson had already been on skis or a snowboard. That is, 40 percent were returning to the slopes after their real first-time experience. This, too, indicates that enthusiasm for sticking with the sport is much higher than much of the retention literature suggests.
What gets the highest marks? Instructors and the overall experience keep newbies coming back.
- On average, 43 percent rate the instructor as excellent, 38 percent very good and 15 percent good (leaving a mere 4 percent as fair, poor or worse.
- First-time lesson takers rate the fun they had in the lesson at 7.7 on a 10-point scale; 37 percent rate the experience a 9 or 10, 25 percent an 8. In short, more than 60 percent of the first-time market is very satisfied with their experience. Could we do better? Sure. For example…
- Why did 40 percent of first-time participants feel a need to repeat the first-time lesson? Only 42 percent said they felt confident about themselves after the first lesson; and even fewer—19 percent—felt they had learned something. Skills need more attention. We want beginners to feel comfortable enough with their skills to move up the scale to more advanced lessons.
- The lowest rated aspects of the lesson are the pre-lesson sign-up procedure, explanation of how to use the equipment, group size, and ease of getting up from a fall. Personal attention and direction at every step of the way will go far in improving these experiences.
The real question is, how much time, energy and dollars should go to improving the first-time experience? If 60 percent of first-time visitors come back for a second, fourth, or even tenth day, maybe the focus should be on improving these subsequent experiences.
Other Holes in the Bucket
However, even if the first-time lesson becomes a life-altering experience and we communicate well enough to fan the newbies’ flames of passion into a wildfire, we still need to plug those other holes in the bucket. Otherwise, these new skiers and riders may fall through the same holes that are leaking existing skiers and riders.
Consider which groups of people are currently leaking out of the sport—or not showing up in the first place.
Are We Still Cool?
Despite our marketing emphasis, the youth market is in decline. Perhaps we are not cool enough—or maybe we’re too cool or too extreme. Since 1999, the percentage of 16- to 18-year-olds on the slopes has declined 49 percent, from 12 percent to 6 percent. Over the last 10 years, 16- to 24-year-olds have declined 15 percent, from 23 percent to 19 percent.
The good news for the youth market is that family participation has been on the rise, and the number of parents bringing their children to the slopes is at its peak. Catering to families will be our last chance to get children age 5 to 15 committed to the sport. The family market should be the key target for the Growth Initiative.
| 1993 | 1997 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|
| 23% | 29% | 27% |
Where Are the Women?
The decline in youth participation is partly the result of fewer young women ages 16 to 24 on the slopes. We began to notice this trend in the NSOS data several years ago. The phenomenon was particularly strong at areas in the Northeast—not all areas, but enough to cause concern. In more recent years we began to notice this issue at areas in the West, particularly areas focusing on extreme snowsports.
But it wasn’t until the 2002 season that the decline became obvious in the national numbers. Historic percentages for males and females in the subset of ages 16 to 18 are close to 50 percent (50 percent males, 50 percent females). This season, the percentage was the lowest we’ve noted in the history of the NSOS—41 percent. It’s an ominous sign—if young girls aren’t on the slopes, the young boy’s won’t follow.
| 1993 | 1994 | 2001 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51% | 47% | 47% | 41% |
Let’s Talk Money
Based on census data, the average household income grew 35 percent during the past decade, from $31,200 to $43,200. Over the last 10 years, the median income of skiers and riders has increased 56 percent, from $56,000 to $88,000. This increase far outstrips the rate of inflation; $56,000 in 1993 is equal to $73,000 today—much lower than the average income of skiers and riders.
When Will We See You Again?
Even our best customers are skiing and riding less and less.
In 1995, 45 percent of skiers indicated that they had skied in each of the five previous seasons—these are our core skiers. This year, the percentage of this group dropped to 31 percent—that’s a drop of 31 percent. Similarly, the percentage of frequent skiers and riders (those who had participated in three or four of the last five seasons) has also declined, from 21 percent in 1995 to 11 percent in 2002—a 47 percent decline.
Conversely, the percentage of infrequent visitors (those who had skied or ridden in one or two of the last 5 years) increased 167 percent, from 9 to 24 percent. During this same time period, the percentage of first-year entrants (both skiers and riders) was stable at 7 percent.
The decline of commitment (yearly visits) is the biggest leak in our bucket.
| Group | 1995 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|
| Avid | 45% | 31% |
| Frequent | 21% | 11% |
| Infrequent | 9% | 24% |
(Another group totaling 23% in 2002 participated only within last the two years or were lapsed from an earlier time.)
How do we plug the leaks?
Increasing conversion rates is certainly a beginning. And it’s essential to focus on converting the Echo Boomers now, while they are young and impressionable.
However, the data suggest that the industry may be doing a better job than it thinks with first-timers (at least at getting beginners to return to the sport). A study Leisure Trends conducted for CustomersFirst clearly shows that lessons are important in the retention of a skier and rider, but it’s how we build upon the enthusiasm of that beginner skier—or any ability level skier or rider—that makes the difference.
Declining participation by our core market, declining youth and female numbers, and a narrowing of our market based on income are major holes in our bucket, and need attention as well. Converting a beginner only to have them fall through one of the other holes is a real possibility.
Discounted season passes will help, but these programs can only go so far. Marketing, building a relationship with each individual—beginner to expert—and improved services throughout the ski area will make the biggest difference in customer retention.
