Let The Games Begin
You can be as blasé as you want, you can comment loftily on how commercial they have all become, you can sniff at the arrogant corruption that was exposed around the IOC, but ultimately, the Olympics are important for the very quality that is supposed to underlie them—the true and worthy spirit of individual human competition.
North America has done well in staging Olympic Winter Games—Lake Placid in 1932 and 1980, Squaw Valley in 1960 and Calgary in 1988. Now, Salt Lake City has its chance. And NBC has a chance to redeem itself and show that, recent coverages notwithstanding, they really can do justice to the Games before the viewing public.
Most of all, though, this is the moment for our superb athletes. The lead-up to the Games has been exhilarating stuff. Who wouldn’t get excited by such performances as Bode Miller’s recent electrifying performances in the technical events? Or Caroline Lalive’s Super G medal? Or Hannah Hardaway’s medal in a World Cup Moguls event?
Whether the U.S. wins the ten medals that Coach Marolt set as a motivational target is unimportant, because individual performances are what the Games are about. Our wish for our athletes: great bib numbers, stick your landings, pick the slickest of lines and above all, Have Fun! We’re proud of you.
An Open Letter to Jim Spring
Jim Spring heads up the research organization, Leisure Trends Group. He also produces the annual National Skier/Snowboarder Opinion Survey.
Dear Jim:
Since you were once editor of this magazine (a good one, I must add, except you always insisted on earning a fair salary and that was your undoing), you know why I would be sending you an Open Letter. Obviously, it is to air a difference of opinion and give you an opportunity to answer and show how wrong I am.
I have always respected your cautious approach to research—your scorn for hype and imprecision—and I have always relished the challenge you issued in this magazine when you showed the skier population was less than half what the establishment research organizations said it was. As recently as in your September issue feature in SAM, you wrote, “We must avoid being romanced by over-stated numbers of the downhiller population.”
So yes, Jim, your head and heart are in the right places. But I have to wonder if some of your numbers are. The reader must understand that when one criticizes the work of a researcher, it’s like looking a new father in the eye and saying his kid is ugly and the load in his Pampers smells. It’s insulting.
But I don’t want to insult; I just need clarification of those numbers you produced for Outdoor Industry Association—numbers like 5.1 million U.S. snowshoers in 2000 and 4.7 million telemark skiers. C’mon. The polite way to put it is that such statistics are counterintuitive; nonsense is another way.
OK. I know the numbers come from the telephone survey, LeisureTRAK®, and are supposed to reflect responses of 16-and-older Americans. I know the respondent is merely indicating participation one or more times during the previous 12 months. I know there is no indication that the activities necessarily took place at ski areas. But even so, do you really think that 4.7 million people telemark skied in the U.S. in 12 months? That 900,000 of them are classified as “enthusiasts” because they telemark skied five times or more during the year? For one, I don’t. The retailers I have spoken to and, more importantly, the manufacturers, don’t think so either.
Think about it. Logic tells you that the vast majority of people who telemark skied did so at lift-served ski areas, and the eyes of all of us who ski at these areas tell us there would be hugely more telemarkers in evidence if your numbers were correct. Yes, there are some backcountry skiers who telemark, but since they are only a small subset of the already small universe of all backcountry skiers, the numbers are going to be very small, and not enough to account for your huge tally.
With snowshoes, at least a case could be made that lots of people in all age groups—like the writer, for instance—might have caught the craze and gone snowshoeing in their backyards, or some other non-ski area place. But here I cite the figures in the National Sporting Goods Association (NSGA) Sports Participation Study, and they found less than 1.5 million people who had snowshoed once or more in 2000. Since our usual complaint with NSGA research is that it tends to overstate the participation level of a sport, what am I to think of a Leisure Trends number that is four times as big? I think it is important to note that there is widespread skepticism toward your findings, even among snowshoe manufacturers, who are not likely to be shy about proclaiming market growth.
So there you have it, Jim. We think there is always danger when numbers float around, unexplained and unanalyzed, that could be the basis for misguided decision-making. I invite your answer and solution for the mystery. Your puzzled friend,
David Rowan
Reply from Jim Spring
Dear Inspector Clouseau:
Aaah! As an agent provocateur you appear to praise, but I suspect there is malice in your heart. Nevertheless, ignoring your request for explanation would be akin to confessing to a crime of statistically significant proportions.
We are always leery of reporting overstated numbers. In sport participation in particular the American public appears to have a very different view of its level of participation than those people of the industry who count sales of units or tickets. Most of us know there is only a slight relationship between sales and number of participants. Consider that 80 percent of alpine skis being used on the slopes are three or more years old.
In the case of our work conducted for the Outdoor Industry Association, we account for this difference by offering two sets of data: one of the participant market, or those who say they have done an activity at least once in the last 12 months, and the enthusiast (core) market, or those who pass the test of frequency (done X amount of times) or other criteria.
Over the years the core market tends to hover around 20 percent of the total. This finding is consistent with findings in almost all statistical work done by us and others (the 20/80 rule) which states that 20 percent of a population represents 80 percent of participants.
The rule applies to our reported number of core snowshoers (16.1 percent) and telemark skiers (19.1 percent). Each group (core and participant) is self-defined, and therefore subject to interpretation by the respondent. In the instance of telemark skiing, it is possible that some alpinists or nordic skiers categorized themselves as telemark skiers since the question is read “telemark skiing” without benefit of further explanation.
Personally, I have no problem with there being 900,000 plus or minus telemark skiers among the downhill population. Depending on what number you pick for total skiers in the U.S. universe (nine million or six million) this represents between 10 to 15 percent of total downhillers. The core number of 850,000 snowshoers also rings true. Anyone who has been to Target or WalMart lately could testify to the significant number of $59 snowshoes for sale.
Over the years I have learned to trust the numbers and not your eyeballs or the eyeballs of manufacturers or retailers.
I believe that this letter makes clear that we believe that the enthusiast or core market numbers represent participants who are more likely to buy and frequent winter resorts and therefore represent the market as defined by an industry.
The larger participant market remains somewhat of a mystery, but we would be negligent not to report it because the claimed participation is of value. Industries more tuned to marketing and using market research see the participant market as providing direction in how to grow their industries. Understanding what the participant market looks like provides richness of understanding about whom to target and in determining what to expect as a rate of return.
Because of different methodologies used by us and NSGA, it is best to refrain from comparing results. It’s the old apples and oranges problem.
Finally, the percentage relationship between enthusiasts and participants has been constant over the last three years. As the participant market has grown, so has the enthusiast market. The relationship of the two has proven to be an excellent means of forecasting market growth.
So, Inspector, I know I have not assuaged your suspicions of consumer research. However, I plead not guilty to all charges. Your unpuzzled friend, Jim Spring
