Meteorological craziness. That best describes the last three winters in the United States. In the winter of 1976-77 unprecedented snow fell as far south as Miami in January. In that same month, it was so warm in Alaska that bears, thinking it was spring, came out of hibernation. In the far West an earth-cracking drought stalked California; and the Rockies and Cascades were virtually devoid of snow. For the Western ski industry it was a disastrous season.
Wild weather continued in the winter of 1977-78. The drought in California turned into a nightmare of mud and floods as repeated heavy rains soaked the area. Meanwhile, awesome blizzards and roof-breaking snowfalls paralyzed various parts of the East at different times. A number of locations approached or surpassed maximum seasonal snowfall marks. Fortunately, for the ski areas, as the snow piled up so did the revenues.
Finally, last winter went down as the most frigid on record from the northern Rockies across the central Plains to the Midwest. Snow was plentiful in the Rockies and too plentiful in Chicago where the furor over snow removal cost the incumbent mayor re-election. But in New England, while it snowed during the work week, it rained on weekends, and skiers stayed home in droves. In northern Massachusetts I was treated to only one semi-decent day of cross country skiing the entire winter. The previous two winters had spoiled me by offering consistent bases of one to two feet, week after week.
Our weather is changing, and the climatic turmoil of the past three winters is symptomatic of the alterations that are taking place. But what are the implications of this turmoil for the 1980’s? Will Western ski areas again be plagued by more rocks than inches of snow? Will the New England ski industry be washed down the drain? Or will abundant cold and snow make the 1980s the best of times and the worst of times? (The best of times for skiers, the worst of times for energy planners.)
Well, get ready to shell out more money for your heating bills—OPEC price increases aside—and get ready to rake in increasing revenues from a booming winter recreation business. If climatic history repeats itself in a predictable manner, as several researchers suspect that it does, the winters of the 1980s will be colder and snowier over much of the country. Not every winter in the near future will be the answer to a ski area operator’s dream, but there is reason to believe that the majority of them will be. The winter of 1977-78, although perhaps an extreme example, may have been a prototype of those winters to frequent the next decade.
It is fair to ask on what basis such an outlook is predicated. The theories and viewpoints relating to the topic of climate and weather trends are myriad. There are as many outlooks as there are meteorologists and climatologists. Obviously there is no certainty in the field of long-range climate prediction, but I have come to the conclusion, with plenty of persuasive scientific data to back it up, that one particular climatic course is much more likely than any other. In a short article I can do no more than summarize the hypothesis behind that conclusion. But it is important that you realize it is based on something other than witchcraft or astrology or nothing at all.
To begin with, there is evidence of a long-term 180-year cycle of general cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. That is, roughly every 180 years a significant drop in atmospheric temperature takes place and persists for several decades. It isn’t quite that simple of course, because there are cycles superimposed upon cycles superimposed upon cycles, etc., and the cooling around the hemisphere is never uniform (some regions may actually grow warmer). But given that we are concerned here with only the next 10 years and with only the U.S., it seems relatively safe to project forward in time climatic trends from the past 800 years or so.
In that perspective the 1980s can be keyed upon as the likely time of the next significant drop in hemispheric temperature, because the cycle last reached its nadir during the early-1800s. The establishment of a climatic analog isn’t straightforward, however. The major difficulty is that over most of our country formal weather observations were not begun until the late—1800s.
Thus, the search for an analog period wends its way through other cycles and other times, and finally embraces a theory which ties the 180-year climatic cycle to long-term solar cycles. The net result is that the period from 1880 to 1910 pops out as probably providing the best clue as to what lies in our immediate climatic future.
Climate records from around that period suggest that for much of the Far West, including the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, the 1980s will feature substantially more snow. On an average annual basis, precipitation may increase anywhere from five percent to fifteen percent or more*—the lower figure applicable to California, the higher one to the Pacific Northwest and Montana.
*All suggested precipitation and temperature changes in this article are relative to contemporary normals, i,e., the climatic averages for the 30-year period 1941-1970.
Any one individual winter could bring some astoundingly deep snowfalls. For instance, in California, Mount Shasta City fought off a record total fall of 270.5 inches in 1889-90; and a state record was established at Tamarack in the Sierras in 1906-07, when almost 74 feet of snow fell. (It has never been clear to me how snowfalls of that magnitude are measured. I suppose that after the weather station is buried, it all becomes academic anyhow.)
In the same season (1889-90) that Mount Shasta City set its snowfall record, deep snows in the Sierras shut down operations on the Central Pacific Railroad for two weeks, almost double the length of any previous or subsequent stoppage. Railroad agents at Donner Summit measured 776 inches of snow that winter. Even the Central Pacific’s new rotary snowplow could not cope with the massive snowbanks; snowbound trains ended up being freed by an army of shovelers.
The lowlands of California were whitened from time-to-time late last century, too. In early February of 1887 a record snow of 3.7 inches coated downtown San Francisco, and up to 7 inches blanketed the western hills. San Francisco’s second greatest snowstorm in history came during the same decade. New Year’s Eve afternoon of 1882 brought 3.5 inches of snow.
Two weeks later, on January 14, 1882, southern California reeled under its biggest snowstorm in memory. Five inches of snow sifted down at Riverside, 15 inches piled up at San Bernadino, and up to 20 inches accumulated on some interior mountains along the Mexican border. Snow frosted the hills behind San Diego at El Cajon down to their bases. It could happen again, but I suspect southern California ski buffs will still have to trek to the Sierras if they expect to hone their skills on a regular basis.
Through the northern and central Rockies, and the mountains of the intermountain West, winter snowfall averages may increase on the order of 10 to 20 percent during the next couple of decades. Witness the fact that a place in the Colorado Rockies, Ruby, set a state record for snowfall in the season of 1896-97 with an awesome total of 65 feet. Ruby also established a single-month state mark in March 1899: 249 inches. That might be a little bit of overkill, but certainly not bad news for winter devotees of Aspen, Snowmass or Vail.
Even the mountains of northern Arizona and New Mexico will probably experience an increase in average seasonal snowfall totals over the next 10 or 20 years. Such an occurrence would be welcomed not only by winter sportsmen, but by those concerned with water supplies in the arid Southwest as well.
Turning to the East, climate records from around the turn-of-the-century suggest that for most of the region, winters of the near future will average colder and snowier than those of the recent past.
The largest increases in mean yearly snowfall are likely from southern New England southward through the Appalachians. However, a slight decrease in seasonal snowfall totals is suggested for northern New England. Winters should average noticeably colder, too. The amount of cooling is perhaps best described in terms of how much heating bills might increase based on weather trends alone. Economic and political pressures aside, it’ll cost you on the average, five to fifteen percent more each winter to heat your home and your business. In the most frigid winters plan on increases of up to 25 percent! (Remember, these figures don’t even take into account OPEC—mandated price increases and U.S. government decontrol of oil prices.)
Data from Blue Hill Observatory, located about 10 miles south of Boston and on top of a 640-foot hill, support the fact that New England winters were longer and colder around the turn-of-the-century. Winter season (December-January-February) temperatures averaged 25.7°F from 1880 through 1909. The contemporary normal is 27.5°F. Another measure of the change in wintertime conditions is the average number of days between the freezing and thawing of nearby Houghton’s Pond. The average was 112 days during 1887-1909, compared with 98 days for 1941-1970.
Because individual statistics such as temperature and snowfall do not always give a good feel for the severity of a winter, something called a severity index was developed for Blue Hill. The severity index is defined simply as the total number of days per season in which the temperature fails to exceed 32°F, plus the number of days per season with six or more inches of snow on the ground. For instance, in the winter of 1976-77 (one of the more severe winters in recent history in New England), the temperature failed to top freezing on 51 days, and there were 58 days that had 6 or more inches of snow on the ground. Thus, the severity index was 109.
Severity indices weren’t tallied before 1895, but in the period 1895-1909 they averaged 70. The 1941-1970 average was 61. From 1963 through 1977 (to facilitate comparison with the initial 15-year period 1895-1909) the index averaged 65.
Grandpa was right, then. New England winters were tougher when he was a kid. Over the next few decades the rest of us may get a chance to find out what he was talking about.
Of course, one of the most memorable events from Grandpa’s time was the great “Blizzard of ’88.” As a snow phenomenon it remains unparalleled in modern history. Even the super snowstorm of February 1978, which shut down much of southeastern New England for almost a week, did not quite match the March 1888 blizzard. The 1888 storm lashed Connecticut, western Massachusetts and southern parts of New Hampshire and Vermont with gale-force winds, near-zero cold and immense snowfalls. Depths of 30 inches or more were common. Some totals reached as high as 50 inches. Middletown, Connecticut, in the Connecticut River valley, was buried under an unbelievable 50-inch fall. New Haven did almost as well with 46 inches.
While southern New England may be blitzed with more great storms in the next decade, it is the middle Atlantic states and the central Appalachians that should receive the largest increases in average seasonal snowfalls. Turn-of-the-century weather data from Washington, D.C., indicate that mean yearly snowfall around that region could grow by as much as 35 to 40 percent (That is a trend that may have started already. February 1979 brought Washington’s deepest snowstorm since 1922.)
Certainly there were some snowy sieges in the late-1800s. Pennsylvania state snowfall records were established in the winter of 1890-91. At Blue Knob (near Altoona) 86 inches—a monthly mark—piled up in December, with the total accumulation for the season amounting to a record-shattering 225 inches.
Farther south, both Knoxville and Chattanooga, Tennessee, observed record deep snow in December 1886. Knoxville measured 22.5 inches on the ground; Chattanooga, an even foot.
The one area of the East where snowfall totals may diminish slightly is northern New England. But there’s no reason for a gloom-and-doom attitude in the ski industry there. The magnitude of the implied reduction is not significant. As a matter of fact, figures from Burlington, Vermont, suggest the ski season might even be lengthened a bit during the next few decades. With colder temperatures likely in the fall and spring, slightly greater November and April snowfalls are a good bet. There are some records of the ski season around Burlington getting off to a galloping start in November in a number of years during the 1880 to 1910 period. In November 1886, 30 inches of snow ushered in a season that saw a total of 142 inches come down. The next year (1887) saw November check in with 19 inches, November 1900 brought 2 feet, and November 1906 did almost as well with 21.1 inches.
And even though seasonal snowfall totals might not average quite so high in the immediate future as they have in the recent past, that will not preclude some very snowy winters from occurring. Eastport’s snowiest season ever was 1906-07. A total fall of 187.5 inches had Down Easterners shoveling constantly that winter.
Still, there might be a few years that will check in with a real dearth of natural snow. The trade-off is that the implication of somewhat colder winter temperatures (especially during February) suggests that pretty good snow-making conditions will prevail most of the time. So, all considered, the picture seems a positive one for northern New England’s 1980s ski industry.
Indeed, the outlook seems bright for the U.S. ski business as a whole. If there is a negative facet to the projected gem of more frequent colder and snowier winters through the next decade, it is the threat of increasing energy costs. Frigid winters can only exacerbate the problem, and it is the eastern U.S. that is likely to be hardest hit. Still, for those areas able to cope with rising operating costs, the majority of the next 10 years would appear to promise abundant snow and abundant skiers.
Harold W. Bernard, Jr., is author of “Weather Watch” (published by Walker and Co., 1979), formerly with Environmental Research & Technology, Inc. of Concord, Mas., and is currently consulting on a TV Special called “The Weather Report” to be aired in January. He is also writing another book, “The Greenhouse Threat.”
