These days the bear is metaphor for lots of real and potential problems. For sports over 20 years old, including skiing, the bear is changing demographics. In boardrooms of leisure companies across the land the question on all lips is, “What will this next generation of kids be doing in the next five, 10 and 15 years? How do I convince them to do my thing?”
There are good and bad signs of the future emanating from the older segment of under-19-year-olds. Board sports are part of their culture. In particular, skate, snow, surf and wake are cool. Snow and water ski, along with in-line skates, are not (although the new school holds hope for skiing).
Which sports emerge as winners in the next 20 years, or whether computers and virtual reality replace them, has a lot to do with how young people perceive a sport as well as the benefits they get from it.
An Industry at Risk
Is the snowsport industry at risk? More than you think, and probably not for the reasons you think. Snowsports has snowboarding, but not without a lot of past argument and resistance. It is hard to say where the industry would be if the recalcitrants had maintained the status quo. And with 28 percent of the downhill population on a board, it’s safe to say that discounting would have been the least of the problems faced by resort operators if snowboarding had not persisted.
To grow both sports, the industry must begin to address another hurdle— demographics. Understanding demographics has never been the industry’s strong suit. In fact, at least institutionally, it has gone on record saying that neither ethnic groups nor minorities represents short- or long-term growth. This notion is supported by research done for Snowsports Industries America by Z-Sports Company, headed by Sergio Zyman, who oversaw marketing at Coke while colas lost 10 share points to uncolas. Coke did not see the big switch to uncolas happening, and instead focused on market share wars in the cola zone.
Why mention this? Because skiing and snowboarding have the same problem. Skier day numbers, for example, are misleading even as they tread water. They don’t account for population growth. If skier-days had kept pace with population growth of 15.3 percent in the United States over the last 12 years, skier-day numbers would have grown to 58 million—a number not reached even in the almost perfect 2000-01 season. Snowsports are losing ground to other sports and activities. They have a shrinking share of a growing market. The ski industry is headed toward invisibility.
Today, competition is not just other ski areas. Competition is all of those other things, other sports and activities, which consume time and dollars.
Sport Lessons
The experience with snowboarding offers some key lessons. The ski industry resisted snowboarding because it feared a clash between cultures: baby boomers vs. dudes, or polite society against the brash. It is a battle the industry should be happy it lost. Has snowboarding done any harm? None that matters, and it has done a lot of good, such as generating TV exposure, a strong Olympic showing and steady lift ticket sales.
Why hasn’t skiing targeted ethnic groups? The usual answer is that they don’t have an interest or enough discretionary income to justify the effort. The truth is that the industry does not have the resources, the sensitivity or the know-how to target ethnic groups. The same may apply to some extent to young people, old people and white people, or else the ski industry wouldn’t be losing share.
Other sport industries in the snowsports affinity set—golf, tennis and the outdoor industries—are doing their best to attract ethnic groups. And they are succeeding. The outdoor industry, merely by expanding its top-of-mind awareness among ethnic groups, has experienced solid growth among African, Asian and Latino Americans in the last two years.
Growing With the Numbers
The potential customers are out there for snowsports, too. In our Potential Market for Skiers study completed in 1998, the Leisure Trends Group found keen interest among ethnic groups in snowsports. The study, which focused on the top 70 MSAs (Marketing Statistical Areas) in the United States, discovered that of all identified potential skiers and riders (never tried, would like to try), almost 30 percent were African American, Asian American or Latino. These findings contradict the Z-Sports study because it surveyed self-identified skiers. You don’t find out much new when you talk to yourself.
By 2010 the population of the United States is projected to be close to 300 million, of which 60 million will be ethnic Americans—a number equal to the population of Great Britain (59.2 million). Ethnic groups represent about 8 percent of snowsliders, but 20 percent of the total population. Ethnic groups are rapidly segueing into the middle class and adopting all of the symbols of having arrived. Among the symbols are golf, tennis and skiing—sports historically reserved for those who can afford them.
The top-of-mind interest in downhilling shown by ethnic Americans has proven to be the harbinger of conversion to participation. But if the industry is truly interested in growing, it should act soon. Most other sports have already put on their running shoes.
