The adult downhill population (over age 16) is getting older and the older they become the more often they participate. This is one of several significant conclusions to be drawn from the 1996-97 National Skier/Boarder Opinion Survey. The reason they are older is there are more baby boomers (age 33 to 51) skiing than Generation Xers. The age profile will, or should, change over the next decade because of the large size of the Echo Boom on the horizon.
Thirty-two percent of adult downhillers found on the slopes this season were 45 years of age or older compared to 21% two seasons ago and 24% last season. This dramatic leap in the over 45 population contrasts with a steep decline of under 34 year olds. Participants 16 to 34 dipped from 48% of the downhill population in 1994/95 to 34.5% this season. The median age is 39, compared to 35.4 in 1994/95.
Skier days as reported in the Kottke study are staying even, rather than dropping precipitously, because older downhillers slide more days. The following table illustrates the differences in average days of participation last season by age.
| Age | 16-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of downhill population (over age 16) | 15.1% | 19.4% | 27.3% | 19.1% | 9.3% | 3.5% |
| Avg. days skied/rode | 9.3 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 13.5 | 16.0 |
Snowboarders are more avid sliders and rode an average of 13.9 days last season compared to skiers who averaged 10.8 days, thus helping to increase the average days participated.
The increase in average days spent on the hill is directly attributable to the fact that older people, mostly men, participate more days than younger skiers and riders. The data indicate that the number of adult downhillers may have declined by as much as 18% over the last several years. This conclusion is based on the fact that skier days have remained constant while frequency increased from 9.1 in 1994/95 to 10.8 in 1996/97. The impact of the drop-out rate has been offset by two extremely important trends. One has been overlooked by the industry and is ripe with marketing opportunity. Twenty-eight percent of skiers (excluding snowboarders) began skiing after the age of 25. The late-comers tend to be married, take more three-or-more-night vacations and have high household incomes. More come from the South and Midwest and are choosing skiing as a vacation alternative.
The second trend is the increase in the number of families that are skiing and bringing their children with them. The percentage of adults with children is 52% (6.6% single parents) compared to 48.1% two seasons ago. Only 60% brought their kids with them to the slopes then, while this season 72% percent brought their under-16 children with them. The average number of children accompanying parents on ski trips is 1.8, with most between 5 and 16, and 93% of them either ski or board.
The net effect on the population of participants is that families represent 63% of the population, the single most important market segment.
Over three-quarters of the heads of households with children who ski or board are between 35 and 54 years of age; only 12% are 34 and younger or Generation Xers. This paucity is caused by both the demographic shortfall in the population and the perceived rise in the cost of downhilling.
Incomes Up
Household income growth of all downhillers has accelerated at a rapid pace. The following chart reviews incomes over the last three seasons.
| Year | Student | <$25 | $25-$49 | $50-$99 | $100-$149 | $150+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994/95 | 10.4% | 7.4% | 20.0% | 32.9% | 11.0% | 9.2% |
| 1995/96 | 9.7% | 6.3% | 16.6% | 29.8% | 11.1% | 12.9% |
| 1996/97 | 10.2% | 4.8% | 14.1% | 30.1% | 13.7% | 14.8% |
Skiers with household incomes of greater than $100K have increased 41% in the last three seasons. Mean household income in 1996/97 is $86,000, more than double the average family income in the United States. Day skiers average $65,000, weekend skiers $86,000 and skiers who spend three or more nights at resorts average $107,000.
Critics refer to downhill sports as “snow polo,” a position which may be enviable for purveyors of real estate but may not be in sync with the aspirations or capabilities of the 87% of U.S. households with incomes of $75,000 or less. Fifty-four percent of downhill households have incomes of $75,000 or more. We estimate that downhill winter sports represent a 30% penetration of $75K plus households in the United States.
Viewed from the perspective of market share, this is the equivalent of BMW staking out a 30% share of the high-income automobile market, which would be a remarkable accomplishment.
Factoring Discounts/Internet
Price promotions, ranging from packages to discounted lift tickets, influenced less than half of downhillers to choose the resort where they were found, as contrasted to 55% in 1994/95. The 51% who say they were not influenced by price promotions speaks to the growing affluence of people who downhill. The missing part of the puzzle is how many would-be, wannabe and former downhillers are not getting the message that discounting is not only available but pervasive in the industry.
The Internet is growing as a means to reach downhillers with everything from discounts to special events to lodging availability. Seventy percent of downhillers say they have access to the Internet and one-third of those who have that access had visited the home page of the resort where they were skiing. The majority were between the ages of 25 and 54 with higher than average Incomes. Before they decided where they would go, 43% visited competitive sites. Almost 4% booked a ski trip using the Internet. Snowboarders and weekend trippers are more apt to book using the Internet.
Wannabe Boarders
Skiers, especially males between the age of 25 and 44 and who have a high regard for their own skiing ability, are trying snowboarding. Almost a quarter of all downhillers in the survey say they both alpine ski and snowboard while only 2.4% of adults say they snowboard exclusively. The forecast is that more skiers will be snowboarding. Five percent of non-riders said they would be trying the sport this season and another 31% said they might try it in the “next few years.”
Based on their parent’s say-so, 6.8% of children under age 16 snowboard exclusively, 13.4% both ski and board and 73% are skiers. The sum of adults and kids who snowboard exclusively equals 9.2% of all downhillers.
Questions to Ponder
Older and richer describes the downhill population in 1997, despite efforts to use snowboarding as the springboard to attract the young and athletic. Historically, the industry has suffered from post-college drop-out and the problem is now exacerbated by the decline in that segment of the population. Are the demographic changes artificial, skewed by national population trends, or are they irreversible and a sign of what’s to come? For the short term, to keep skier days from dropping, older skiers must be encouraged to keep going. Long-term, this is obviously a losing proposition.
The key to the future lies in attracting families and there is plenty of evidence that downhilling is an attractive family activity. But as noted above, we are becoming increasingly dependent on the wealthiest strata of the population (household incomes upwards of $75,000) where our snow sports have already achieved a 30% penetration. Many of these can be characterized as having older heads of household.
Age alone is not the single barometer of opportunity when viewing demographic information. In viewing these statistics, one has to ask whether or not income should be given equal or greater weight when addressing the shortage of new entrants and the creeping decline in participation?
Changing the perceived cost of downhilling and greater emphasis on all the benefits of the time and cost investment necessary to participate would go a long way to attract more people to downhilling. If the real costs—given the ever-escalating consumer expectations for lifts, glamourous on-slope restaurants and perfect snow conditions—cannot realistically be lowered, we will have to do a better job of convincing the families it is value, not cost, that matters.
