Mountains of Doubt
The big question at the Mountain Travel Symposium in early April at Keystone was, how long would the current economic agony last? A show of hands indicated most travel-industry attendees expect a quick, V-shaped recession. But the general-session speakers and panelists were nearly unanimous in proclaiming that the change in consumer attitudes and habits observed this winter will last three to five years, at least.

Among the prognosticators were management consultant Dr. Oren Harari and Greg Dunn of Ypartnership. Dunn’s research on affluent travelers (i.e., those earning $400,000 or more) helped quantify the magnitude of the changes in these folks. They are quitting their country clubs; only 15 percent remain members, lowest in years. Target is preferred department store to Nordstrom, by 2 to 1. A full 89 percent said they are looking for 50 percent off when they make purchases. They still plan to travel for leisure, but 84 percent said they plan to spend less than in the past. They are also looking for free upgrades and other value-added goodies. In other words, the affluent are beginning to act like everyone else. They are channeling the prudence of the last generation to experience hard times--those who grew up during the Depression.

Two superstar panelists, Mike Shannon of KSL Capital Partners and Rob Katz, CEO of Vail Resorts, were less specific about the duration of the change and its long-term effects, but both agreed the consumer has changed dramatically. Shannon said resorts should focus on value and clear communications regarding price and products. He urged areas to retain top talent, as they are part of the core business operations and are not variable costs. He assured resorts that the Boomers would be back. But he cautioned that the banking crisis will linger for years. He noted that the savings and loan crisis, which was smaller, took six years to clean up. And he pointed out that, at that time, there was a singular focus on that crisis; the Obama administration is also trying to reform health care, foster green energy and improve education. With this lack of focus, Shannon intimated, it could be a long time before the banking crisis is resolved.

Katz was less certain about future habits, and less concerned about them as well. He noted that nobody knows what the economy, or the national mood, will be in six months. While he predicted that consumer confidence would stabilize at a higher level and that the government’s stimulus efforts will have an effect, the good times won’t resume by September. Customers, he said, have settled into a new reality, and they will be looking to book at the last minute and get a great deal. We’re in a deflationary environment for travel—-an index of national travel prices declined nearly 20 percent last year, from 275 to 231—-and everything costs less. Reorient to that and you can build from this year. “You will go insane if you think you can get back to 2007 next year,” he said.

But Katz also offered a broad perspective. He pointed out that the previous five years had seen a big rise in prices across the resort spectrum. If resorts need to discount to attract guests, there’s room to do so. If you raised your rates 100 percent over the past five or six years, for example, you can afford to give back 25 percent now. The question is, he said, how do you position the business to do well if the current climate continues?

Both Shannon and Katz indicated that the urge to spend, to enjoy the good life, has not evaporated. And in the long run, that will fuel a return to something closer to the way we were in 2007. But nobody dared suggest that 2007 will ever be the norm again.


The thoughtful case for brain buckets
Know this: Vail Resort’s new helmet requirement (see page 14) came after years of consideration. The widely publicized death of Natasha Richardson from a head injury may have helped push this to the fore, along with a desire to let employees know about the change well in advance of next season. That, anyway, was the word we received from Blaise Carrig, co-president of Vail Resorts’ mountain division.

“We’ve talked about this pretty intensely in the leadership group over the past year,” he told SAM. “We got to where we decided this was the right thing to do. We have a strong safety culture, so we felt it was wrong to not have a policy about wearing helmets while employees are working.”

Carrig noted that, in addition, “we started to hear a lot more from guests, ‘why isn’t your staff wearing helmets?’ That has such an impact on kids. Maybe even adults see them as a role model. This is the best way to be an example of helmet use.”

VR will supply 6,400 helmets to employees, and give those who spend the most time on snow, instructors, patrollers, and hosts, a selection of styles to choose from, to respect “the vanity aspects” of helmets, Carrig says. “Personally, I know that a lot of my choice on helmets was based on comfort and how I looked.” However, employees whose jobs are not so visible or spent on-snow so much, such as F&B employees, may have more limited choices.


flaik: technology for a new age
Technology is changing the way we communicate with guests (see page 30, for example). It can also change how we stay in touch with them on the hill.

In a beta test, Copper and Steamboat are using a GPS-based system, Flaik, to track kids and instructors in ski school. The goal: to not lose any kids, and to rejoin lost sheep quickly once they stray. Copper deployed up to 600 units this past winter, and a single operator can watch them all from a central computer in real time. The operator can even zoom in on specific users, similar to using Google maps (without the satellite view).

Copper found that the system is fun for guests and useful for resorts. The device tracks both location and speed, so guests can download a child’s file and see where he/she went during the course of the day. About one in three families at Copper did just that. To ease access to the data, Flaik is creating apps for the iPhone and Blackberry, says Aussie inventor and founder Steve Kenny.

Copper snowsports school director J.P. Chevalier says that the opportunity to create a way for parents to engage with kids was the primary benefit; safety was a secondary concern. Chevalier likes the way it brings modern tech into the sport and adds another dimension.

Initially, instructors resisted the technology for its Big-Brother aspects, but quickly came to like it. Chevalier says it helps establish average times for classes to make a round trip; this information can help instructors use their class time most effectively. As a general training tool, he believes the system will improve the class experience and raise the value of class time.

The Flaik technology has potential for many other applications as well. It could be used for ski patrol, to speed dispatch of closest patrol to an accident, as a record for sweep, or to pinpoint the site of a wreck. The device can reveal how quickly patrol responds, how long patrollers remain at the scene, and transit time. Flaik can be used to track the pace of a groomer or, more generally, areas can analyze how people are using their day. That information could help determine cap ex needs--to upgrade a lift or increase grooming, for example, or add cafeteria space.

Already, Flaik is getting attention from other resorts, and could be available at 15 to 20 areas next year.


shortswings
The fate of several areas will be determined soon, if not already. Both Yellowstone Club and Tamarack face early-May court deadlines. Intrawest has reportedly been considering a variety of options regarding its resorts, including selling some properties, and Swain ski area in New York will either be sold or mothballed . . . It has been just 20 years since Magic Carpet installed the first conveyor lift at a resort, revolutionizing the beginner experience and saving a generation from the nightmare of rope tows . . . The best hope for a first-ever indoor skiing venue in the U.S., Meadowlands Xanadu, is on hold. The slope and lift are in place and ready to roll, but the project’s August opening has been postponed, with no opening date set . . . Fire destroyed the base lodge at Soldier Mountain, owned by actor Bruce Willis, this past winter; there’s no plan yet to rebuild it . . . Sugarbush is offering a multi-season “Fancy Pass,” named for the highest grade of maple syrup, good for unlimited skiing/riding, golf, mountain biking, health and racquet club access, disc golf, and zip line rides, for an oh-so-sweet price of $4,500 . . . The world’s highest ski resort, Bolivia’s Chacaltaya, has closed after its glacier melted completely away. The world’s highest ski area is now Jade Dragon Ski Mountain in Yunnan Province, China, whose gondola serves a small basic area at 15,000 feet. One popular retail item there: altitude sickness tablets and oxygen bags.